March 7, 2009

Lightning Version of Murphy’s Law - Struggles and Injuries Continue

Murphy’s Law is an adage in Western culture that broadly states:  “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”  At times Murphy’s Law is strengthened, as Finagle’s Law (also known as Finagle’s corollary to Murphy’s Law).  Or more so, as: “Whatever can go wrong will go wrong, and at the worst possible time, in the worst possible way.” In essence, you could say that the Lightning’s season has been afflicted by both of these laws.

Tampa Bay has struggled from the onset of the season.  There are numerous reasons for the fall and decline of the team… blame could be put on the new ownership with its “Hollywood” entrance and eventually hiring of Barry Melrose.  Blame can be put on the ownership’s desire for a mega team makeover instead of a gradual makeover and then there are the injuries… the bottom line though, the owners and the coaches don’t lace the skates and hit the ice for an 82-game season - it’s the players.

Putting aside the turbulence that the team endured the first month and half, along with a revolving door of players coming and going it’s amazing that the team was able to win at all. 

The Lightning have had to deal with plenty of adversity this season, but they’re professional athletes and they should be accustomed to change and should be able to adapt to the adversity that has been bestowed upon them.  Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case with the Lightning… they were dealt with the worse hand in recent years.

Injuries have plagued the team all season long.  It seemed for every player returning from an injury another one replaced them… the injury list looked more like a starting lineup at times than the actual lineup posted.  Dealing with injuries is never easy – for any team in any sport.  Tampa Bay has been beset with more injuries than they racked up in the previous four seasons… that’s apparent by the number of players the team has used (47) this season.

Tampa Bay’s total Man-Games lost sits at 247 heading into Saturday’s game against Carolina… only two clubs have more Man-Games lost due to injury – the New York Islanders lead the way, followed by the Atlanta Thrashers.

The injury bug has taken the remainder of the season away from defenseman Paul Ranger, Andrej Meszaros and prior to their trades defenseman Jamie Heward and goaltender Olaf Kolzig.  Both Ranger and Meszaros underwent season-ending shoulder surgery on March 3^rd.  Prior to their surgeries, Ranger had missed numerous games because of an upper-body injury while Meszaros had played through numerous nagging injuries. 

Kolzig had surgery to repair a torn biceps tendon in his left arm sustained during practice in December, while Heward has suffered from post-concussion syndrome since sustaining a concussion on January 1^st from a hit by the Capitals Alexander Ovechkin.  For Kolzig, his first season away from Washington had begun with promise and then came the freak accident.  An initial MRI didn’t show anything major, but it kept getting worse and worse and eventually the tendon tore from the bone.  It is the same injury that New Jersey Devils goalie Martin Brodeur had at the start of the season and recovery time is at least three months.

Kolzig went 2-4-1 with a 3.66 GAA in eight starts and last played December 11^th in picking up a 3-1 win over Montreal.

There is an NHL directive that allows teams in many circumstances not to disclose injury information – such was the case with goaltender Mike Smith.  The Lightning only said he had an “upper-body” injury… but in time it was revealed that Smith had sustained a concussion.  The last game played for Smith was January 30^th and with just weeks remaining in the regular season it appears that Smith will be shut down.  He has already missed 14 games due to post-concussion syndrome and there is no reason for him to return with the Lightning out of a post-season berth.

In addition to those mentioned above, Gary Roberts (32) elbow, Paul Szczechura (12) knee, David Koci (19) broken arm, Matt Pettinger (9) lower body,  Ryan Malone (10) upper and lower-body have all lost significant time to injuries… I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the other 10 players that have also missed time as well – Marek Malik, Jason Ward, Evgeny Artyukhin, Lukas Krajicek, Chris Gratton, Adam Hall, Steve Eminger and Matt Smaby.

With all the injuries there has been little or no chemistry formed with the lines that Rick Tocchet has attempted to put together.  It seemed that just when something good was beginning to happen with a line, there was injury forcing yet another change.  In order to balance the scoring, Tocchet initially broke up the Lecavalier, St. Louis and Prospal line… after some success with numerous changes the new line combinations eventually stalled at scoring and so once again the three were re-united again.

Putting aside the problems with the offensive lines, there was nothing more devastating than the injuries to the defenseman or the lack of which had problems from the get-go.  Say it once, say it twice or however many times you want, but trading Dan Boyle was so severe that I think it’ll be another year before the Lightning defense can rebound.

Heading into the season ownership knew that the defensive core decimated – including that of the minor league affiliates.  With Boyle, Lukowich, Picard, Janik and Kuba no longer with the Lightning, the opening roster included Paul Ranger, Shane O’Brien and Mike Lundin from the prior season to go along with newcomers Andrej Meszaros, Matt Carle, Jaime Heward, Janne Niskala and Vladimir Mihalik.

Upon the Bolts return from Prague, the doors at the St. Pete Times Forum began revolving so fast that you needed a scorecard at every game to keep up with all the moves.

One day back from Prague and defenseman Shane O’Brien was history as he was traded to Vancouver for defenseman Lukas Krajicek with defenseman Vladimir Mihalik and goalie Kari Ramo getting shipped to Norfolk of the AHL.

The defense continued to change when Heward was sent to down to Norfolk as the Lightning signed free agent defenseman Marek Malik and just days later Matt Carle, acquired in the Dan Boyle trade was sent to Philadelphia for defenseman Steve Eminger and winger Steve Downie.  Within days Matt Smaby was called up and sent back down with Heward coming back.

If stability was the word of the day, month or year the defensive core never had it as in the coming weeks the Lightning would send Mike Lundin to the minors, and call up Smaby, Mihalik, Ty Wishart and Kevin Quick – these four were also returned as quickly as they arrived.

In an attempt to bring some stability, defenseman Cory Murphy was claimed off waivers and less than a month later Jussi Jokinen was traded to Carolina for defenseman Josef Melichar and winger Wade Brookbank – which brings us up to the trading deadline where the Lightning acquired defenseman Noah Welch from the Florida Panthers for Steve Eminger, defenseman Matt Lashoff and winger Martins Karsums from Boston in exchange for Mark Recchi and defenseman Richard Petiot from Toronto for goaltender Olaf Kolzig, defenseman Andy Rogers and Jaime Heward.

In all, 18 different defenseman has put on a Lightning sweater this season… and every player acquired in the Dan Boyle trade with the exception of a draft pick is no longer with the team.

The Second Half

The second half of the season has more or less been a mirror image of the first half, though there has been some noteworthy improvement.

The one major area of improvement has been the play of rookie center Steven Stamkos.  Stamkos if you remember was thrown under the bus by former coach Barry Melrose upon his dismissal, when he said that “Stamkos wasn’t ready for the NHL.”

Under Melrose, Stamkos struggled.  He was basically left to fend for himself.  Stamkos continued to have problems and through 40-games all that showed offensively were 5-goals and 15-points, with his ice time dropping to about 11 minutes a game and a demotion to the fourth line.

Stamkos received some shocking news on January 9^th.  After a 30-meeting meeting with Rick Tocchet and assistant Mike Sullivan, Stamkos was told that he would be a healthy scratch against the Anaheim Ducks that night.

It was during this meeting that Tocchet and Sullivan told that he (Stamkos) was being put on a weight program and being put into a classroom video situation with assistant Wes Walz.  On games that he would be scratched, Stamkos was to be in the pressbox with notebook and pen in hand.  He’d also be placed on a game playing schedule, which would see him play three or four consecutive games before another healthy scratch. 

Stamkos responded to his new regimen picking up a goal and two assists in the three consecutive starts he made following the demotion.  By week three of the new program, Stamkos had two goals and three assists through six games played.

By February 16^th, Stamkos level of play had improved so much Rick Tocchet left him in the lineup and on February 17^th against the Blackhawks Stamkos recorded his first NHL hat trick the natural way (3 consecutive tallies).  The month ended with the rookie scoring 6-goals with 2-assists.

In Stamkos’ 22-games since the initial scratch on January 9^th, Stamkos has netted 9-goals with 7-assists for 16 points to bring his season total to 14-17-31.  He’s almost surpassed all of Vincent Lecavalier’s rookie stats and is within reach of Brad Richards’ rookie record for goals scored (21).

Right now Stamkos is playing his best hockey of the season and credits Rick Tocchet for the turn-around in his season. “When Melrose was here, I really didn't play that much,” Stamkos said. “When Tocchet took over, I started to see my minutes rise.  So that’s where you have confidence.  You’re out there, you’re in the game, you know you’re going to make mistakes but you have the confidence you’re going to learn from them, and the coaching staff has confidence in putting you out there in key situations.” 

“If you have that confidence, you're going to see yourself making plays you made in junior and why you were picked where you were.  I’ve been able to do that in the last month and a half or two.”

At the end of January the Bolts were within striking distance (9-points) of the 8^th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference after a 9-5-1 run… although they were still holding down the 12^th spot, the Hurricanes (holders of the 8^th spot) were in clear view.

Unfortunately, the Bolts couldn’t capitalize on their improved play and lost five of their next seven and followed that up with losing eight of their next twelve games to fall to 21-31-13 with 55 points – 19-points off the mark for the 8^th playoff spot as the team enters Saturday’s game against the Hurricanes.

The mirror image as mentioned before hasn’t changed otherwise… injuries continued to decimate the lineup, new additions via trades at the deadline and call-ups from Norfolk continue and will do so the final five weeks of the season.

Trade Deadline Moves

As expected, the Lightning made three moves that added youth and cut salary… just one of the deals having the potential for a long-term effect. 

In trading veteran Mark Recchi and a second-round pick in 2010 to the Bruins, the Bolts acquired 22- year-old defenseman Matt Lashoff and 23-year-old right wing Martins Karsums.  Lashoff is a former first-round pick in 2005 while Karsums was a second-round pick in 2004.

Lashoff ($675,000) and Karsums ($875,000) are both in the final year of a deal and both will be restricted free agent at the end of the season. 

Sending Steve Eminger to the Panthers for defenseman Noah Welch and a 2009 third-round pick was pretty much a salary dump.   Eminger had been the Lightning’s top defenseman this season but GM Brian Lawton said they were not going to be able to afford the potential award that Eminger could win in arbitration.  Eminger could very well double his $1.2-million salary this season.

As for Welch, he had been a healthy scratch 36 times this season and averaged under six minutes of ice time with the Panthers.  The bottom line though is that with him making $750,000 in the final year of his contract, he’ll be much easier to sign.

In the Bolts final deal of the day, and the most attention-grabbing one saw netminder Olaf Kolzig, Jaime Heward, minor-league defenseman Andy Rogers and a 2009 fourth-round pick head across the border to Toronto for minor-league defenseman Richard Petiot and a fourth-round pick in this years’ draft.

The NHL was active in this deal as all three Lightning players are injured.  NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said the league gave it a look because of that and wanted to ensure the deal included “legitimate hockey assets.”  Toronto will pay the remaining salaries this season of all three.

For those inquisitive minds, here’s what the Lightning’s draft choices look like for this year’s NHL Draft:

·         (1) first-round selection

·         (2) second-round selections

·         (1) third-round selection

·         (1) fourth-round selection

·         (1) sixth-round selection (from the Predators that could become a fifth if Nick Tarnasky plays 55 games) – as of this writing, Tarnasky has played a combined 38 games this season for the Predators/Panthers.

·         (1) seventh-round selection

Looking Ahead to the Draft

If the season ended today, the Lightning would have the third over-all pick in the 2009 draft (behind the Islanders (1) and Atlanta (2.  Of course this could change when the season comes to a close… so, what will the Lightning do? 

For argument sake, if the Bolts come away with the first-overall pick do they select center John Tavares the runner-away scoring leader of the OHL or defenseman Victor Hedman?  In as much as the Lightning needs help on the blueline is Hedman or for that matter any d-man available in the draft going to NHL ready?

The answer to that is no – no 2009 defenseman will be NHL ready.  So that brings me to Tavares who in my opinion would jump right in and make an immediate impact.  In 54-games combined for the London Knights and Oshawa Generals Tavares has scored 55 goals with 45 helpers for a total of 100 points.

Tavares is in striking distance of the all-time Ontario Hockey League’s goal scoring title needing just two goals to capture one of the OHL’s most distinguished records.  Tavares had two goals Thursday night in a 7-1 home win over the Kitchener Rangers and one goal Friday night in a 5-3 win in Kitchener over the Rangers.

Tavares has scored 212 goals during his four-year OHL career to date and is two goals shy of setting a new OHL career record for goal scoring. Peter Lee of the Ottawa 67’s set the current record when he scored 213 goals from 1971-1976.

Tavares, who has scored 29 goals in 22 games since joining the Knights in January, moved past Stan Drulia into second place on the all-time goal scoring list with his 199^th goal against the Rangers on February 15^th.

London Knights center John Tavares and Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman top the North American and European skaters in the NHL Central Scouting’s Midterm Rankings released this past Monday.  Central Scouting ranked the top 210 North American skaters, the top 30 North American goaltenders, the 148 top European skaters and the 12 best European goalies.

Tavares, named the MVP of Canada’s gold-medal effort at the 2009 World Junior Championship, has been at the top of the '09 Draft lists for quite some time. Hedman, the 6-foot-6, 220-pound defenseman currently playing for MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik in the Swedish Elite League, is renowned for having the skating ability and puck skills of a smaller player.

Trailing Tavares in the North American is Brampton Battalion center Matt Duchene. One of the last cuts from the Canada’s national junior team, Duchene has picked up his play as the season has gone on, and entered the weekend tied for seventh in the OHL scoring race with 49 points in 30 games. He was second to Tavares in the preliminary rankings of OHL skaters.

Next on the list is Vancouver Giants center Evander Kane. Kane has 22 goals and 48 points in 28 Western Hockey League. Also close is No. 4 Jordan Schroeder, the top-rated American-born skater. A freshman center at the University of Minnesota, Schroeder leads all first-year collegians with 14 assists and 21 points.  Ranked fifth is Brandon Wheat Kings center Brayden Schenn. Schenn (6-foot, 193) has 28 assists and 45 points in 39 WHL games.

Gary Roberts – Is His Career Over?

It looks as though the distinguished NHL career of Gary Roberts is over.  Last week Roberts was put on waivers before the trade deadline and cleared waivers as wasn’t claimed by another club.  Roberts was absent from the Bolts practices on Thursday and Friday and the media was informed that he returned home to Toronto to be with his pregnant wife and discuss his options with his family.

GM Brian Lawton told XM Radio on Friday morning that Roberts was taking a couple of days to “think about things” and that they would meet and talk on Monday or Tuesday.  Lawton also stated that the club would not send Roberts to Norfolk of the AHL.

Roberts signed a one-year deal with the Lightning last summer for $1.25-million. He scored four goals and three assists in 30 games.

Roberts has scored 438 goals and 471 assists in 1,224 games in his NHL career, nearly half of his goals coming after a first retirement in the mid-1990s due to a serious neck injury. The Toronto native ranks 60^th all-time in goals and 88^th in points. He also racked up 2,560 penalty minutes, 18^th most in league history. His best season statistically came in 1991-92, when he scored 53 goals and added 37 assists.

Prior to the trade line there was some speculation that Roberts would be dealt to the Calgary Flames, where he first played and won a Stanley Cup with in 1989.  Roberts was hoping that a return to Calgary would give him another chance for a Stanley Cup in his last year.

Salary could have been the deciding factor in Robert’s not being traded or picked-off waivers – a bonus clause that would have kicked-in… $10,000 per game if he skated. 

January 14, 2009

Midseason Grades Etc.

Monday’s night’s game against the Kings in Los Angeles marked the beginning of the second-half for the Bolts and though they won the game in sloppy fashion the bottom line was that they won to begin the second half of the season.

The first 41 games was nothing but a disaster for Tampa Bay.  They had just 12 wins, which was tied for the league’s least amount, they were near the bottom in scoring, they were tied for the most 1-goal losses and after years of success in the shootout, the Lightning couldn’t buy a win… and to top that Barry Melrose was fired after 16-games as their coach.

With all the off-season and in-season moves it was very apparent that the team lacked chemistry and cohesiveness.  Barry Melrose added to the frustration by his lack of preparation and his way of motivating his players – which was walking out of practice after a very heated meeting that essentially but each one of the players under the bus.  Melrose did absolutely nothing to change the atmosphere on and off the ice.

Melrose seemed to be the root of the Lightning’s first half problems and assistant coach Rick Tocchet was thrown into the fire to resurrect the floundering team as interim coach just 16-games into the season.  Tocchet along with his assistant coaches Cap Raeder, Wes Walz and Mike Sullivan have had the ungodly task of basically starting from scratch to get the team back on track.

Despite the poor first half, with little or no scoring from the “Big Three” in Vincent Lecavalier, Marty St. Louis and Vinny Prospal, the lack of scoring from the defenseman and in general lack of just about everything else, there was one bright spot from my standpoint – goaltender Mike Smith.  Smith clearly emerged as the team’s number one netminder who saved them from further embarrassment with his outstanding play.

Forget Smith’s record (10-15-9) for just a minute and look at everything else he’s done… a .920 save percentage ranks him in the Top 10, his 2.50 goals-against average ranks him tied for 16^th in the league with having faced over 1,000 shots, which is more than any other netminder.  In addition, he has two shutouts.

If there is one aspect of his game that needs work, that would be the in the shootouts.  Smith’s shootout record is much to be desired where he’s lost seven games – but then again, if his teammates were able to put the puck in the basket during this time things certainly would be much different.

As mentioned in earlier updates, the Lightning added numerous players either by trade or as free agent signings during the off-season.  No doubt some if not a majority of the trades or signings has played a significant role in the team’s poor showing, but none more than the Dan Boyle trade or the Radim Vrbata signing.

In the trade for Boyle and Brad Lukowich, the Lightning got Matt Carle, Ty Wishart and first and fourth draft choices in the 2009 Entry Draft.  The Lightning not only lost its transition game, they lost one of the best blockers in Lukowich and one of the top scoring defenseman in the league.

The trade freed up the money to acquire defenseman Andrej Meszaros, who hadn’t scored a goal till last week when he dropped in his first since last February.  Meanwhile, Boyle’s (12-goals, 22-assists) 34 points leads all defenseman in scoring.

Matt Carle meanwhile touted for his offensive upside and for his ability to run the power play when he was acquired.  Owner Oren Koules raved about the deal saying, “The trade ensures that our team is better in October and better for the next 10 years.”  

So much for confidence in Carle being the new Dave Boyle… he was jettisoned to Philadelphia after 12-games in which he had just one assist and 13 shots on goal and proved to be a defensive liability.  On the flip side, the Bolts did get a good return for Carle - Steve Eminger and Steve Downie.  Eminger has proven his worth; Downie has done the same with the Norfolk Admirals, where he was selected as an AHL All-Star.

Radim Vrbata was signed to a three-year, $9-million dollar contract to provide scoring on the second-line.  Last season with Phoenix, Vrbata had career highs in goals (27), assists (29) and points (56)… he struggled with immensely with his game, netting only 3-goals along with just 3-assists in 18-games before he asked to return to his native Czech Republic in early December.

Martin St. Louis is small in stature, but not when it comes to playing the game… one would think that he’s seven feet tall and a bruiser on the ice.  St. Louis wears and shows his heart for the game inside and out.  He’s usually the first one available to answer the media’s questions after the game and regardless of the outcome, he’s always very diplomatic.

It’s rare that the media get’s to hear players challenging each other, but after a 4-3 loss to the Thrashers in Atlanta on December 20^th, St. Louis challenged his teammates.   St. Louis vented his frustrations saying it loud enough for everyone to hear, “Plain and simple, there’s not enough guys who want to make a difference.”  St. Louis went on further adding that some teammates were “Clock killers, that’s all it is,” referring to the lack of desire to win and play the game.

First Half Report Card

Lightning Nutz and Boltz I

After a win to open the second half on Monday night, the Lightning was crushed 7-1 by Dan Boyle’s San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night to close out the 10-day, 5-game road trip where the Lightning finished at 3-2. 

There aren’t any excuses for the teams’ play against the Sharks – they were out played period, by the best team in the NHL, who by the way haven’t lost a regulation contest at home since last February 14^th, a span of 31 games.  San Jose is 20-0-2 at HP Pavilion this season.

The injury bug continues to attack the Bolts, mostly on the blueline where depth is slim at all levels.  Kevin Quick was called up from AHL Norfolk for Tuesday’s game against the Sharks and made his NHL debut.  He became the 39^th player to appear in a game this season, most in the league.

Steve Eminger missed his second consecutive game on Tuesday, Matt Smaby was placed on injured reserve and Paul Ranger was forced to sit on the sideline as well after coming down with an upper-body injury, believed to be the same injury that forced him to sit three games.  That left the Lightning with five defensemen, so David Koci saw time on the d-line

The Lightning will begin a five-game homestand, sandwiched around the All-Star Game, when Philadelphia comes to town Thursday.

Lightning Nutz and Boltz II

Over the past week or so, there have rumors flying from every Canadien media outlet that the Lightning’s ownership is having financial problems and that Vincent Lecavalier is on the trading block.  Some of those rumors reported that OK Hockey was unable to pay the players, coaches, St. Pete Times Forum personnel and in some instances those that were paid the check bounced.

To answer that – hogwash!  An inside source informed me that there have been no missed paychecks, no checks ever bounced and yes, money is tight but OK Hockey is stable.  That was reiterated by Damian Cristodero’s story in the St. Petersburg Times on Sunday.

As for the trade rumors and financial problems, GM Brian Lawton summed it up with this:  “Are we trying to trade Vinny Lecavalier?  No, we are not.  Is the Tampa Bay Lightning going out of business?  No, it isn’t.”

Lecavalier and his agent denied the rumors and Lawton acknowledged on Monday that the Lightning is not shopping Lecavalier, but as the team evaluates its needs going forward, “There are no players who are untouchable.”

Best quote

“I’ll predict right now, Tampa Bay will win the division.” — Owner Len Barrie, on July 8^th, to the St. Petersburg Times