February 28, 2007
Trader Snow
Makes Isles An Interesting Pick Come Playoff Time
As the
Tuesday, February 27 3pm NHL trade deadline approached, many
storylines raced across the back pages of Newsday and through the
heads of Islanders fans. Would Jason Blake remain or would the
Islanders trade him before he hits the Free Agent Market this
summer? Is Richard Zednik going to be the main forward acquisition
or does GM Garth Snow have something else up his sleeve?Boy, did he.
In a move that
broke the hearts of Edmonton Oilers fans and had the player himself
in tears at his farewell address today at Edmonton’s airport,
longtime Edmonton Oiler Ryan Smyth was acquired by the New York
Islanders at the 11th hour of the trade deadline.
According to published accounts, it seems contract negotiations
between Smyth and the Oilers, which had been cantankerous for some
time, broke down within the last hour of the deadline. Once this
became clear, the Islanders and Oilers made contact and discussed a
deal that sent the player known as “Captain Canada” was traded to
the Islanders. According to Garth Snow, the trade took a short time
to work out. In return for Smyth’s services, the Islanders send
Edmonton their 1st round draft choice in 2007, 2003 first
round draft choice Robert Nilsson, and 2005 first round draft choice
Ryan O’Marra. Considering the fact that Smyth is not under contract
to the Islanders and hits the free agent market if the Islanders do
not sign him, this is a considerable risk. Giving up 3 first round
draft picks for a player who could turn into a “playoff run rental”
would be seen by many as risky, especially if the Islanders do not
re-sign Smyth. However, this draft is not considered to be a very
talented draft pool and Robert Nilsson has toiled in the minors
since he was drafted in 2003. Here it is 4 years later and the
player the Islanders passed on Zac Parise for has yet to make a dent
at the NHL level. I don’t mind giving up Nilsson for the chance to
have Ryan Smyth because Nilsson’s lack of progression tells me he
likely won’t be much more than a 3rd line forward at best
in the NHL.
The prospect
that truly got this deal done was Ryan O’Marra. O’Marra played
juniors for Erie in the OHL and was a member of the last two
Canadian Junior teams that won gold and the World Championships.
O’Marra was a projected top 8 pick who fell to the Islanders at 15th
in 2005. At the time of his draft, he was projected as a future
second line center whom will be a strong 2 way player and has strong
leadership qualities. Many experts saw him as a future captain in
the NHL. Nothing about his progression has changed many opinions.
While it is disappointing to see such a quality prospect leave the
organization, the opportunity to add Ryan Smyth to the mix is well
worth it.
What will it
take to keep Ryan Smyth in a Islanders uniform beyond this spring?
Reports across Canada stated Smyth is looking for a 5 year deal in
the neighborhood of 5.5 million dollars per season. Considering
the 4 time 30 goal scorer is in the midst of the second of back to
back 30 goal seasons and is enjoying his finest season as a pro,
Smyth will have little trouble finding such a contract on the open
market. I cannot believe Garth Snow would trade away O’Marra and
the Isles 07 1st pick if he did not have a plan to
re-sign Smyth. Could this put the future of Jason Blake as an
Islander in jeopardy?
Blake was
another player rumored to be involved in possible Islanders
dealings, but his direction was said to be leaving. Long Island
Newsday practically had a “Jason Blake watch” the last 72 hours
prior to the trade deadline. Reports claimed 6 western teams
including Dallas, San Jose, and Anaheim were all making offers to
obtain Jason Blake’s services. Blake, who like Smyth, is in the
walk year of his contract, is looking to cash in on his career best
year. He hit the 30 goal mark for the first time this season and at
age 33, is looking for his last contract to be as lucrative as
possible. Many feared that the cost to sign Blake would upset the
Islanders salary cap and that the team would trade him instead of
losing him for nothing in the off season. That did not come to pass
as the deadline did. Blake remained an Islander and was seen
bouncing around with a higher than normal level of energy prior to
the Islanders 6-5 OT win against Philadelphia only 4 hours beyond
the deadline.
So, the trade
deadline passed with Jason Blake remaining an Islander and Ryan
Smyth becoming one. These were not the only decisions made by the
Islanders during trade season. Garth Snow decided to further
bolster an inconsistent offense by trading for Richard Zednik of the
Washington Capitals for the Islanders 2nd round pick in
the 2007 draft. Zednik is a speed forward who is strong on the
puck, but has been hampered by a groin injury for a large section of
the season. Throughout his 11 year career, Zednik has average a
half point a game in the playoffs for Montreal and the Capitals. It
is widely speculated that Zednik will join the second line of Miro
Satan and Viktor Kozlov.
In a previous
trade with Edmonton, the Islanders acquired hard shooting defensemen
Marc-Andre Bergeron a week prior to the deadline for Russian
defensive prospect Denis Grebeschkov. Bergeron paid dividends
immediately scoring 3 points in his first game and was a +3 in his
first three games combined. Bergeron’s hard shot will keep opposing
penalty killers from collapsing their box and force teams to honor
the Islanders pointmen, hopefully opening up seams for the Islanders
forwards on the powerplay.
These
aggressive moves by the Islanders do mean some changes are in
order. Look for the following line combinations to come about once
Smyth arrives on Long Island.
Jason Blake-
Randy Robitaille- Ryan Smyth
Miro Satan-
Viktor Kozlov- Richard Zednik
Trent Hunter-
Mike Sillinger- Andy Hilbert
Arron Asham-
Richard Park- Chris Simon
Jeff
Tambellini has been sent back to Bridgeport after a very successful
stint on the Island. His call up to fill in on the Satan-Kozlov
line should leave him with the confidence that his hard work in the
minors is paying off and leave the organization feeling good about
his chances to earn a roster spot and contribute next season.
The same can
be said for Franz Nielsen as well. Though scoring only one goal in
his career in fewer than 20 NHL games, Nielsen’s game has improved
dramatically since his call up earlier in the season. He will be
sent down to Bridgeport as well so he can gain more experience and
playing time, but he will need to add some physical strength to his
game. Still, it is clear coach Ted Nolan was pleased with the
progress Nielsen has made this season and it bodes well for his
future in the organization.
The odd men
out in the forward rotation will likely be Shawn Bates, who has been
nursing a groin injury and possibly Richard Park or Chris Simon.
The additions of Zednik and Smyth allow the Islanders to roll three
solid lines, and come the playoffs I cannot imagine the Islanders
sitting Chris Simon and/or Arron Asham due to the need for
toughness. I would expect Randy Robitaille to drop to the 4th
line center once Alexi Yashin is healthy enough to return. However,
by dropping Richard Park from the lineup, the Islanders would sit
possibly their top PK forward. Yet, with the contributions on the
PK of Hunter, Sillinger, Satan, Kozlov, Robitalle and if needed
Blake, the Isles PK could be in good stead if Coach Ted Nolan
chooses to sit Park.
It is clear
that with these move, Snow has issued a “win now” directive to the
club. The Islanders have no draft picks in the first two round of
the 07 draft, a draft said to not be very deep. However, the
Islanders do have 3 third round picks so if they feel the need to
move up to the second round, it should not hurt them to do so.
Additionally, the Islanders will have the following players become
Unrestricted Free Agents at the end of this season- Ryan Smyth,
Jason Blake, Viktor Kozlov, Tom Poti, Mike Dunham, Arron Asham,
Richard Zednik, Chris Simon, Sean Hill, Andy Hilbert, and Richard
Park. This will leave many interesting decisions for Garth Snow and
owner Charles Wang’s “management group”.
However, as of
now this was an outstanding day to be an Islander. Not since the
mid 1980’s have Islander fans had reason to believe that the Isles
had a decent shot at making a run in Lord Stanley’s playoffs. Garth
Snow said all year that at the trade deadline the Islanders would be
“buyers, not sellers” and he was good to his word. That is what
Islanders have been looking for from management since 1990, a reason
to believe that pinning their hopes on the team would not be mangled
amongst a drama of mismanagement, poor ownership and poor trades.
Yesterday, Garth Snow did something that GMs Don Maloney and Mike
Milbury could not do throughout their tenures at the helm of the
Isles’ ship. He gave the fans hope; HOPE that there is a direction
to be followed and when the team has a shot at making a run, they
will take a calculated risk. Mostly, he gave the fans hope that
something good will come at the end of the season and what else can
a fan ask of management? How long has it been since Isles fans
could legitimately feel that way?
In
closing….GREAT MOVES GARTH!!!! And as always, LET’S GO
ISLANDERS!!!!!
February 25, 2007
As Trade
Deadline Approaches, Isles Ponder Options and Climb Standings
The NHL trade
deadline comes to pass at 3 pm Tuesday, February 27th.
As it approaches, the Islanders find themselves playing some of the
best hockey in the Eastern Conference. As of this writing, the
Islanders sit in the 8th playoff spot at 70 points with
62 games played. The Montreal Canadiens also have 70 points, but
have played 64 games. Carolina holds 7th place with 71
points in 64 games, and free-falling Atlanta sits in 6th
with 72 points in 64 games played. With games this week against
Philadelphia, St. Louis and Washington, the Isles are in a prime
position to make a run up the eastern standings.
The Islanders
can thank their surge since the All-Star break on several factors.
First is the emergence of the Hunter-Sillinger-Hilbert line as a
consistent scoring threat. Since it was put together at the end of
December, this has been the Isles best line at both ends of the
ice. Trent Hunter’s offense has picked up considerably since
joining Sillinger and Hilbert. Sillinger and Hilbert have chimed in
with timely goals, such as Sillinger’s game winner against
Pittsburgh with under 30 seconds left, for what could possibly be
the biggest 2 points of the season. This line has been able to put
the clamps on the opposition’s top line, while managing to create
their own offense as well.
Another key to
the Islanders recent surge has been the play of the second line.
Since Yashin’s injury, second line center Randy Robitaille was moved
to center the first line and Victor Kozlov was moved from wing to
center for the second line. Moving Kozlov to center has given him
more space to create his own shot while being able to distribute to
Miro Satan as well. The recent addition of Jeff Tambellini to this
line has paid dividends as he has scored 7 points and is a +5 in 13
games on the Island. Moving Kozlov to center has resulted in Kozlov
threatening to break his own personal best in goal scoring. He sits
just one shy of his personal best of 22 goals and his current +15
rating is a personal best. Satan and Kozlov have logged time on the
penalty kill as well this season with the injury to Shawn Bates.
The Satan-Kozlov-Tambellini line has been productive in the number
two spot and should continue to get better as they play more often
with each other.
Third, the
play of Rick DiPietro and the defense has been stellar during the
post All-star game stretch. For the season, the Islanders have the
3rd fewest goals allowed of any team in the Eastern
Conference. This season DiPietro is 27-18-5 with a 2.62 GAA and
.916 save percentage. However, since the break, DP has amassed some
impressive numbers. He is 8-2-3 with a 2.28 GA. That stretch is on
top of the consistently strong play DP has shown throughout the
season. Rick DiPietro has shown that he must be looked at amongst
the best 25 and under goaltenders in the NHL. It hasn’t hurt that
his far improved defense has continued to play well. Brendan Witt,
who should wear the captain’s “C” for this organization continues to
play his physical brand of hockey as had 37 year old Sean Hill. It
is my hope that Hill, who was signed to a single year contract, will
be brought back next season. The play of Hill and Witt has provided
excellent leadership to youngsters Campoli, Fred Meyers, and Bruno
Gervais. The recent acquisition of hard shooting Marc-Andre
Bergeron has added some life to the Isles powerplay and youth to
their blueline. The tag on Bergeron in Edmonton was he makes too
many mistakes in his own end, but in 3 games with the Islanders he
is +3 with 3 points. At 27, it was a good move to add him to the
Isles defensive corps, especially with the loss of Bruno Gervais to
an ankle injury and Radek Martinek for the rest of the season with a
broken leg.
The
Future….and the Trade Deadline
GM Garth Snow
has some interesting choices to make by Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Does he address the need of the Islanders for a power forward for
Jason Blake’s line or does he stand pat? Does he trade unrestricted
free agent Jason Blake at the trade deadline, or does he hope to
resign the Isles sparkplug before he hits the free agent market on
July 1?
Personally,
while any fan must love Blake’s hustle and grit, he is 33 years old
and this will be the first time he cracks the 30 goal mark. While I
would love to see Blake remain an Islander, the idea that Blake is
asking for a 5 year 18 million dollar contract is crazy. Such a
contract would have Blake an Islander until he is 39, and I doubt
his play as a 39 year old will warrant a contract over 3 million
dollars a season. An argument can be made that his play this year
in the salary cap era does not warrant the 3.6 million a year his
contract request would fetch. I don’t doubt that some team out
there may be willing to overpay Blake to get him, but the Islanders
are already strapped by Yashin’s ridiculous contract. Can the Isles
afford to be strapped to another?
If the
Islanders should trade Blake before the deadline, it would have to
be to a team like San Jose that has high quality prospects in their
system. Teams out of contention will not make a play for Blake.
Teams in contention will not have great draft positioning this
June. Thus, it will take at least 2 top prospects and a first round
pick and another pick to pry Blake from the Islanders before the
deadline. It can be no other way. The Islanders are in a playoff
spot as we speak. To trade Blake and have no offensive replacement
for him this season would send the message to fans that this season
is over to both players and fans. Thus, if the Islanders are to
give up on the season (which wouldn’t make sense based upon their
current position), the Isles would need this deal to look like
something Mike Milbury would do if he were the other GM involved.
The Isles would be asked to not only rent out Blake, but give up a
playoff spot they currently hold. To do so would require a cost I’m
not sure any team is willing to pay. Especially when you consider
what the Atlanta Thrasher paid St. Louis to obtain Keith Tkachuk
(2007 1st round, 2007 3nd round, 2008 2nd
round, Glen Metropolis, and a conditional 2008 1st round
pick if Keith re-signs with the Thrashers), the Islanders would need
even more in return. Tkachuk is a past his prime forward who has
been a cancer in several locker rooms. Blake is enjoying a career
year on a team whose playoff run is damaged if he leaves. St. Louis
was not asked to give up playoff aspirations.
It will not
break my heart if the Islanders deal prospects Sean Bergenheim or
Robert Nilsson at the trade deadline. Our 1st round
picks in 2002 and 2003 respectively, Bergenheim and Nilsson have yet
to make a contribution to the Islanders. I do not believe they will
pan out to be the prospects many Islanders fans hope they will be.
If they can be moved in an effort to get offensive help, I would
pull the trigger on that deal immediately. The longer it takes them
to make it to the Islanders, the further their trade value slips.
The only
untouchable Islanders prospects should be Kyle Okopso, Ryan O’Mara
and Blake Comeau. According to Newsday, several teams have desired
Okopso in trade talks. The Islanders have been rumored to be in the
running for Bill Guerin. However, based upon the price the Blues
received for Keith Tkachuk, there is no way the Islanders can pay
that price for Guerin, who will be a unrestricted free agent. I
would rather see the Islanders do nothing at the deadline and move
into the playoffs with the team they have, than trade away a
prospect like Okospso or O’Mara.
One move that
would do wonders for the Islanders would be to move Shawn Bates.
Coach Ted Nolan has proven his abilities by figuring out what Steve
Stirling could not. Bates is a 4th line center, fill-in
for an injured forward and spot penalty killer at best. Bates takes
far too many stupid stick penalties while killing penalties to be
depended upon as a consistent PK player. He doesn’t provide enough
offense to to be on the first 2 lines consistently and his defense
limits him from being a consistent 3rd line player.
Bates is probably the epitome of the Mike Milbury deals. Just
before finishing his 10 year joke as GM of the Islanders, Milbury
signed Bates to a 3 year, 3.3 million dollar deal showing once again
that Milbury loved to overpay for lesser talent. The Isles
currently have 5 centers on their payroll- Alexi Yashin, Randy
Robataille, Viktor Kozlov, Mike Sillinger and Shawn Bates. Bates is
5th on the depth chart and Robitaille is a cheaper and
better version of Bates. Robitaille is better with the puck, nearly
as fast, and unlike Bates, won’t miss the net on breakaways by
ALWAYS trying to go high. Moving Bates would be addition by
subtraction for the Islanders.
That is how
things sit on Long Island at this moment. We shall see if things
change at all in the coming week.
As
always….LET’S GO ISLANDERS!!!!!
