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10-30-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. Home field advantage is figured at 3 points. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Championship Games
165-102 (62.00%) Straight Up / 140-127 (52.31%) ATS  (+147.50
see below)

3 Year Running Record:
486
-283 (63.29%) Straight Up / 422-347 (54.82%) ATS

 

NFL Super Bowl Sunday

Sunday, Feb 1

POINTS ADJ NET POINTS PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK
Pittsburgh
Arizona
27
23
  2.989
5.095

-3
2.989
2.095
ARI
-2.106
ARI
+7
ARI
Last week we predicted both games correctly and were the only major site to predict the Cardinals outright victory. How long can Cinderella continue the run though? The national media, Las Vegas, and even Barack Obama have pretty much already given this game to the Steelers, but not so fast. When you break it down this game becomes a classic case of a great offense vs. a great defense. Most of the time the great defense will win these battles, however although the world thinks of the Cardinals as a young up and coming team, they are actually the oldest team in the NFL and have a quarterback and running back who have been there before along with the best player in the NFL right now in Larry Fitzgerald. Right now, nobody in the league can cover this man one-on-one and if you try to double up on him, Anquan Boldin can kill you as well. The Steelers will counter with the best defense the league has seen in years. Recent history will also show that the underdog performs much better than expected in the Super Bowl. You only have to go back to last years Giants for an example. Then there is the Cardinals underrated defense. In three playoff games, Arizona's defense has sacked the quarterback seven times and grabbed eight interceptions. They've given up an average of roughly 77 yards per game and have only allowed two rushing scores. The Steelers offensive line is not that strong this year and the Cardinals will look to crush that line and control the line of scrimmage. That means Ben will have to try to win the game for the Steelers and if that happens the Cardinals have done exactly what they want in this game.

Score Prediction:
Arizona 30 - Pittsburgh 27

 

NFL Championship Sunday

Sunday, Jan 18

 

POINTS ADJ NET POINTS PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK
Philadelphia
Arizona
25
32
Recap 5.179
8.095

-3
5.179
5.095
ARI
-0.084
ARI
+4
ARI
I cant believe I am writing this, but we are predicting the Cardinals to defeat the Eagles and Donovan McChoke on Sunday. The Cards defense has been unbelievable in the playoffs, and Warner should have a big day as his offensive weapons are returning. That's right, we are predicting the Arizona Cardinals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It's about 33 degrees and dropping in Hell right now.
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
14
23
Recap 5.752
3.484

-2
5.752
1.484
PIT
-4.268
PIT
-6
BAL
We keep hearing how hard it is to beat the same team three times in a season, the actual record though over the last 18 games is 11-7 in favor of the team that won the first two. The Ravens have gone since week two without a bye and we think it will catch up to them some this week, the defense is stellar, but the Steelers at home are just as good and statistically are better. Flacco almost has to make a rookie mistake at some point (we mean one that the refs see) and this defense can force him into it.

 

NFL Divisional Weekend

Saturday, Jan 10

 

POINTS ADJ NET POINTS PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK
Baltimore<<
Tennessee
13
10
5.979
4.930

-2
5.979
2.930
TEN
-3.049
TEN
-2.5
TEN
Recap - Baltimore Ravens 13 - Tennessee Titans 10
Ravens, unflappable rookie QB edge Titans 13-10
A not-so-raw rookie and a trustworthy veteran lifted the Baltimore Ravens to the brink of the Super Bowl. With the help of a brutal defense that knocks opponents silly, of course. After all, these are the Ravens, who love nothing more than to win grudge matches. And, this one was worthy of the WWE. Baltimore survived 13-10 on Saturday against the Tennessee Titans thanks to Matt Stover’s 43-yard field goal with 53 seconds remaining...
more
Arizona<<
Carolina
33
13
10.095
7.453

-2
10.095
5.453
CAR
-4.642
CAR
-10
ARI
Recap - Arizona Cardinals 33 - Carolina Panthers 13
Unbelievable! Cardinals stun Panthers 33-13, one win from first Superbowl
The Arizona Cardinals were considered the softest team in the playoffs, unable to win far from home and carrying the scars of years of ineptitude. But behind their cagey quarterback, dynamic receiver, improved defense—and a big assist from Jake Delhomme’s horrible night—the Cardinals are a win away from the unthinkable: a berth in the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner threw two touchdown passes, Larry Fitzgerald had 166 yards receiving and the Cardinals pounced on Delhomme’s six turnovers Saturday night in a 33-13 win over the bumbling Panthers...more
Sunday, Jan 11
Philadelphia<<
NY Giants
23
11
5.179
4.063

-1
5.179
3.063
NYG
-2.116
NYG
-4
PHI
Recap - Philadelphia Eagles 23 - NY Giants 11
McNabb continues hot streak, Eagles beat Giants 23-11 to reach the NFC title game
Donovan McNabb will get another chance to chase that elusive Super Bowl title. Eli Manning threw away his opportunity to defend it. McNabb made all the big plays that Manning did not, and the Eagles eliminated the New York Giants 23-11 Sunday to reach the NFC title game for the fifth time in eight seasons....more
San Diego
Pittsburgh
<<
24
35
8.263
4.484

-1
8.263
3.484
PIT
-4.779
PIT
-6
SDG
Recap - San Diego Chargers 24 - Pittsburgh Steelers 35
Steelers put the home hammer down and defeat the Chargers 35-24 to advance to Championship game.
The team with the NFL’s best home-field record since the 1970 NFL merger shook off a 7-0 deficit barely two minutes into the game, shut down pint-sized playmaker Darren Sproles and returned some normalcy to the NFL postseason by beating the San Diego Chargers 35-24 in an AFC divisional game Sunday...more

Overall 2008 Record: Through Championship Games
165-101 (62.03%) Straight Up / 139-127 (52.26%) ATS  (+57.50
see below)

Championship Sunday 2008 Record:
2-0 Straight Up / 1-1 ATS  (-10.00)

3 Year Running Record:
486
-282 (63.29%) Straight Up / 421-347 (54.82%) ATS

This year we started in week one which we never have before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.

We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week 2.

This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per game per week for the rest of the year.

That is just our system for averaging out the beginning slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the season and playoff time.

So this year we did the following:

Championship Weekend we bet a total of 200 and won 190 for a net of -10.00
Divisional Weekend we bet a total of 400 and won 380 for a net of -20.00
Wild Card Weekend we bet a total of 400 and won 190 for a net of -210.00
Week 17 we bet a total of 1600 and won 2090 for a net of +490.00
Week 16 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1520 for a net of -80.00
Week 15 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 14 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1520 for a net of -80.00
Week 13 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 12 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1900 for a net of +300.00
Week 11 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 10 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 9 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1710 for a net of +310.00
Week 8 we bet a total of 1400 and won 2000 for a net of +600.00
Week 7 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1   we bet a total of  400 and won  380.00 for a net of -20.00

So for the year we are at -112.50 to date

How the predictor works:

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Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.


Predictor History

Week 15 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 14 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 13 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 12 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 11 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 10 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 9 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 8 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 7 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 6 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 5 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 4 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 3 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 2 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 1 2008 NFL Predictor

Overall Final 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  
Total win based on 1 unit ($100.00): +2830.00

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)


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