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9-18-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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Some big games this week, and the predictor has some surprises as a lot of teams that are not so good are playing against one another and the matchups are all fairly close this week. There are a lot of teams that the predictor has covering that to tell the truth, I don't have much faith in, but that's the way the computer says it so we will go with it for this week. The way this season has gone, there is no telling as every week is a crapshoot.

How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. Home field advantage is figured at 3 points. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 8
69-47 (59.48%) Straight Up / 61-55 (52.59%) ATS  (+237.50
see below)

Week 8 2008 Record:
9-5 Straight Up / 11-3 ATS (+$600.00)

3 Year Running Record:
390-228 (63.11%) Straight Up / 343-275 (55.50%) ATS

This week we get to find out where a few teams really stand, The possible Super Bowl preview game of Giants-Steelers being the best game of the week. Tampa Bay catches Dallas at the right time, Buffalo tries to stay hot in Miami, the suddenly hot Rams get a chance at 3 in a row in NE, and Monday night the Titans try to stay unbeaten against a desperate Colts team.

Should make for another fun weekend of football.

NFL Week 8
SUN, OCT 26   POINTS ADJ NET PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK  
Tampa Bay
Dallas
<<
 9
13
 6.162
10.928

+3
 6.162
13.928
TAM
-7.766
DAL
-2
TAM Recap
Washington<<
Detroit
25
17
 7.479
24.045

 
 7.479
24.045
WAS
-16.566
DET
+7.5
WAS Recap
Buffalo
Miami
<<
16
25
 7.615
15.177

-1
 7.615
14.177
BUF
-6.562
MIA
+1
BUF Recap
St. Louis
New England
<<
16
23
17.493
11.039

-2
17.493
 9.039
NWE
-8.454
NWE
-7
NWE Recap
San Diego
New Orleans
<<
32
37
12.192
12.752

-1
12.192
11.752
NWO
-.440
NWO
+3
NWO Recap
Kansas City
NY Jets<<
24
28
20.230
13.877

-1
20.230
12.877
NYJ
-7.353
NYJ
-14
KAN Recap
Atlanta
Philadelphia
<<
14
27
11.376
 7.862
+1
-5
12.376
2.862
PHI
-9.514
PHI
-9.5
PHI Recap
Oakland
Baltimore
<<
10
29
18.394
12.076

-1
18.394
11.076
BAL
-7.318
BAL
-7
BAL Recap
Arizona
Carolina
<<
23
27
8.485
7.257

-1
8.485
6.257
CAR
-2.228
CAR
-4.5
ARI Recap
Cleveland<<
Jacksonville
23
17
14.473
11.102

-1
14.473
10.102
JAC
-4.371
JAC
-7
CLE Recap
Cincinnati
Houston
<<
 6
35
20.922
16.097

-1
20.922
15.097
HOU
-5.825
HOU
-9
CIN Recap
NY Giants<<
Pittsburgh
21
14
5.252
5.231

-1
5.252
4.231
PIT
-1.021
PIT
-3
NYG Recap
Seattle<<
San Francisco
34
13
20.715
18.984

-1
19.715
17.984
SFO
-1.731
SFO
-5.5
SEA Recap
MON, OCT 27
Indianapolis
Tennessee
<<
21
31
11.943
 4.243

 
11.943
 4.243
TEN
-7.700
TEN
-4
TEN Recap
·Bye: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 8
69-47 (59.48%) Straight Up / 61-55 (52.59%) ATS  (+237.50
see below)

Week 8 2008 Record:
9-5 Straight Up / 11-3 ATS (+$600.00)

3 Year Running Record:
390-228 (63.11%) Straight Up / 343-275 (55.50%) ATS

This year we started in week one which we never have before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.

We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week 2.

This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per game per week for the rest of the year.

That is just our system for averaging out the beginning slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the season and playoff time.

So this year we did the following:

Week 8 we bet a total of 1400 and won 2000 for a net of +600.00
Week 7 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1   we bet a total of  400 and won  380.00 for a net of -20.00

So for the year we are at +237.50 to date

How the predictor works:

Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.


Predictor History

Week 6 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 5 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 4 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 3 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 2 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 1 2008 NFL Predictor

Overall Final 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  
Total win based on 1 unit ($100.00): +2830.00

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)


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