Well, another crazy NFL Sunday as we had 5 games decided in the last
minute. The Rams getting their first win over a supposedly "top" NFC
team, Indianapolis finding their offense finally, upstart Atlanta with a
miracle win that followed a miracle comeback by Chicago. Miami coming
within seconds of winning their third straight game, the Cardinals
fighting off a furious Cowboys comeback to win in OT, and San Diego
exorcising its Patriot demons. All in one glorious day of football.
The predictor had a predictably unpredictable 5-9 straight up record in
a weekend of upsets, but did ok ATS at 7-7.
No one saw the Browns coming, especially not the Giants.
In the end, out of our top 6 teams in the power rankings, 5 lost and one
had a bye. So a big shakeup will be coming this week as the old
parable continues this year again. Any Given Sunday, or in this case
Monday as well.
Overall
2008 Record:
Through Week 6
50-38 (56.81%) Straight Up / 43-45 (48.86%) ATS
(-$292.50 see below)
Week 6 2008 Record:
5-9 Straight Up / 7-7 ATS - ugh
3 Year Running Record:
371-219 (62.88%) Straight Up / 325-265 (55.08%) ATS
This year we started in week one which we never have
before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of
the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to
bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.
We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week
2.
This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in
week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per
game per week for the rest of the year.
That is just our system for averaging out the beginning
slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then
depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the
season and playoff time.
So this year we did the following:
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a
net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a
net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1 we bet a total of 400 and won 380.00 for a net of -20.00
So for the year we are at -292.50 so with our break even
point we have to go 9-5 to be up for the year.
On an interesting sidenote, because we bet at local
Casinos our comps for our total bets total 256.00 as of this week.
How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our
computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being
strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point
on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer
thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread
if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the
favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog
if you are in a ATS contest.
If you have the option of not
picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the
spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.
Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with
any major injuries
Reading Results: Red games are losses. If
you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening
would be the ATS result
We count ATS ties as wins since you cant
lose a tie.
Predictor History
