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9-18-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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With a 37-23 record so far this year you would think we would be happy. However that is straight up and the idea of the predictor is to do better than average against the spread, we are not there so far this year at 27-33 ATS although this happens every year as the predictor gets its feet wet in the first few weeks. After just a horrible week ATS last week the predictor is back to give it the old college try, we kicked the computer a couple of times, we shall see how well that works this week again. We are heading into week 5 and if history is any indicator of that, we tend to start getting a lot better at this point in the season.

How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. Home field advantage is figured at 3 points. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 3
37-23 (61.67%) Straight Up / 27-33 (45%) ATS  

Week 4 2008 Record:
8-5 Straight Up / 6-7 ATS

3 Year Running Record:
358-204 (63.70%) Straight Up / 309-253 (55%) ATS

NFL Week 4
SUN, SEP 28   Points Adj Net Pts Prediction Spread ATS Pick  
Cleveland<<
Cincinnati
20
12
18.546
17.711

-2
18.546
15.711
CIN
-2.835
CIN
-3.5
CLE  
Minnesota
Tennessee
<<
17
30
12.282
 5.818

-2
12.282
 5.818
TEN
-6.464
TEN
-3
TEN  
Denver
Kansas City
<<
19
33
 9.651
21.265

-2
 9.651
19.265
DEN
-9.614
KAN
+10
KAN  
San Francisco
New Orleans
<<
17
31
13.964
13.857

-2
13.964
11.857
NWO
-2.107
NWO
-6
SFO  
Arizona
NY Jets
<<
35
56
10.478
15.659

-2
10.478
13.659
ARI
-5.181
NYJ
-1.5
ARI  
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
<<
21
30
10.099
10.775

-2
10.099
 8.775
TAM
-1.324
TAM
-1
TAM  
Atlanta
Carolina
<<
 9
24
13.937
10.475

-2
13.937
 8.475
CAR
-5.462
CAR
-7
ATL  
Houston
Jacksonville
<<
27
30
19.421
11.718

-2
19.421
 9.718
JAC
-9.703
JAC
-7
JAC  
San Diego<<
Oakland
28
18
11.466
16.829

-2
11.466
14.829
SDG
-3.363
OAK
+8
OAK  
Buffalo<<
St. Louis
31
14
 7.654
21.265

-2
 7.654
19.265
BUF
-11.611
STL
+8
BUF  
Washington<<
Dallas
26
24
10.550
 5.513

-2
10.550
 3.513
DAL
-7.037
DAL
-11
WAS  
Philadelphia
Chicago
<<
20
24
 5.623
12.579

-2
 5.623
10.579
PHI
-4.956
CHI
+3
PHI  
MON, SEP 29 TIME              
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
20
23
10.527
 8.347

-3
10.527
 5.347
PIT
-5.180
PIT
-5
PIT  
·Bye: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, NY Giants, Seattle

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 3
37-23 (61.67%) Straight Up / 27-33 (45%) ATS  

Week 4 2008 Record:
8-5 Straight Up / 6-7 ATS

3 Year Running Record:
358-204 (63.70%) Straight Up / 309-253 (55%) ATS

How the predictor works:

Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.


Predictor History

Week 4 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 3 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 2 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 1 2008 NFL Predictor

Overall Final 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  
Total win based on 1 unit ($100.00): +2830.00

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)


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