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10-30-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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Week 15 and the playoff implications really start to make an impact. Starting with Thursday night's matchup of two teams on the bubble in New Orleans and Chicago, and going all the way through Sunday nights Giants-Cowboys showdown.

Even though we are having an excellent year straight up, hitting on 64 percent of our picks, our ATS record leaves something to be desired. The last month has killed us as strong teams are being upset regularly and some teams are falling apart down the stretch (we are talking to you Washington and Denver) and the system is a historical one which gives too much credence to their early successes.

Friday Changes: Jets move to favorites over Bills

How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. Home field advantage is figured at 3 points. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 15
144-80 (64.29%) Straight Up / 116-108 (51.79%) ATS  (-112.50
see below)

Week 14 2008 Record:
11-5 Straight Up / 7-9 ATS (-270.00)

3 Year Running Record:
465
-261 (64.05%) Straight Up / 398-328 (54.82%) ATS

NFL Week 15
THU, DEC 11   POINTS ADJ NET PTS PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK  
New Orleans
Chicago<<
24
27
12.022
11.739

-3
12.022
8.739
CHI
-3.823
CHI
-2.5
CHI Recap
SUN, DEC 14
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
<<
10
13
6.244
9.172

-1
6.244
8.172
TAM
-1.928
ATL
-2.5
TAM Recap
Washington
Cincinnati
<<
13
20
12.091
20.806
  12.091
20.806
WAS
-8.715
CIN
+6.5
WAS Recap
Detroit
Indianapolis
<<
21
31
21.101
5.662

-2
21.101
3.662
IND
-17.439
IND
-16.5
IND Recap
San Diego<<
Kansas City
22
21
14.611
17.845

-1
14.611
16.845
SDG
-2.234
KAN
+5.5
KAN Recap
Denver
Carolina
<<
10
30
11.723
5.037

-1
11.723
4.037
CAR
-7.686
CAR
-8.5
DEN Recap
Green Bay
Jacksonville
<<
16
20
12.054
16.119
  12.054
16.119
GNB
-4.065
JAC
+1.5
GNB Recap
Pittsburgh<<
Baltimore
13
 9
4.112
7.970

-1
4.112
6.970
PIT
-2.858
BAL
-2
PIT Recap
Tennessee
Houston
<<
12
13
3.104
13.352

 
3.104
13.352
TEN
-10.248
HOU
+3
TEN Recap
Seattle<<
St. Louis
23
20
18.028
20.647
  18.028
20.647
SEA
-2.619
STL
+2.5
SEA Recap
San Francisco
Miami
<<
 9
14
15.014
9.796

-2
15.014
7.796
MIA
-7.218
MIA
-6.5
MIA Recap
Buffalo
NY Jets
<<
27
31
14.284
9.694
+3
-1
17.284
8.694
NYJ
-8.590
NYJ
-8
NYJ Recap
Minnesota<<
Arizona
35
14
10.572
8.978

-1
10.572
7.978
MIN
-2.594
ARI
-3
MIN Recap
New England<<
Oakland
49
26
8.779
18.449

-1
8.779
17.449
NWE
-8.670
OAK
+7.5
NWE Recap
NY Giants
Dallas
<<
 8
20
3.249
8.935

-1
3.249
7.935
NYG
-4.686
DAL
-3
NYG Recap
MON, DEC 15
Cleveland
Philadelphia
10
30
16.334
9.695

-3
16.334
6.695
PHI
-9.639
PHI
-15
CLE Recap

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 15
144-80 (64.29%) Straight Up / 116-108 (51.79%) ATS  (-112.50
see below)

Week 14 2008 Record:
11-5 Straight Up / 7-9 ATS (-270.00)

3 Year Running Record:
465
-261 (64.05%) Straight Up / 398-328 (54.82%) ATS

This year we started in week one which we never have before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.

We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week 2.

This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per game per week for the rest of the year.

That is just our system for averaging out the beginning slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the season and playoff time.

So this year we did the following:

Week 15 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 14 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1520 for a net of -80.00
Week 13 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 12 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1900 for a net of +300.00
Week 11 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 10 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 9 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1710 for a net of +310.00
Week 8 we bet a total of 1400 and won 2000 for a net of +600.00
Week 7 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1   we bet a total of  400 and won  380.00 for a net of -20.00

So for the year we are at +157.50 to date

How the predictor works:

Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.


Predictor History

Week 13 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 12 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 11 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 10 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 9 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 8 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 7 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 6 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 5 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 4 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 3 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 2 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 1 2008 NFL Predictor

Overall Final 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  
Total win based on 1 unit ($100.00): +2830.00

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)


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