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10-30-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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Even though we are having an excellent year straight up, hitting on 60percent of our picks, our ATS record leaves something to be desired. We are only running at about 53% ATS so hopefully this week we can do something about that.

How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. Home field advantage is figured at 3 points. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 14
133-75 (63.92%) Straight Up / 109-99 (52.40%) ATS  (+157.50
see below)

Week 14 2008 Record:
10-6 Straight Up / 8-8 ATS (-80.00)

3 Year Running Record:
454
-256 (63.94%) Straight Up / 391-319 (55.07%) ATS

NFL Week 14
THU, DEC 4   POINTS ADJ NET PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK
Oakland
San Diego<<
 7
34
20.647
14.284

-3
20.647
11.284
SDG
-9.363
SDG
-8.5
SDG
SUN, DEC 7
Jacksonville
Chicago
<<
10
23
14.611
12.739

-2
14.611
10.739
CHI
-3.872
CHI
-7
JAC
Minnesota<<
Detroit
20
16
9.796
21.101
  9.796
21.101
MIN
-11.305
NL MIN
Houston<<
Green Bay
24
21
16.014
12.854

-1
16.014
11.854
GNB
-4.160
GNB
-6
HOU
Cleveland
Tennessee
<<
 9
28
17.845
3.209

-2
17.845
1.209
TEN
-16.636
TEN
-14
TEN
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
<<
 3
35
18.449
6.909

-2
18.449
4.909
IND
-13.540
IND
-13.5
IND
Atlanta
New Orleans
<<
25
29
8.935
12.991
  8.935
12.991
ATL
-4.056
NWO
-3
ATL
Philadelphia<<
NY Giants
20
14
10.572
3.107
  10.572
3.107
NYG
-7.465
NYG
-6.5
NYG
Washington
Baltimore
<<
10
24
9.695
9.172
  9.695
9.172
BAL
-0.523
BAL
-5.5
WAS
NY Jets
San Francisco
<<
14
24
8.720
16.334

-1
8.720
15.334
NYJ
-6.614
SFO
+4
NYJ
Kansas City
Denver
<<
17
24
16.119
12.723

-2
16.119
10.723
DEN
-5.396
DEN
-9
KAN
Miami<<
Buffalo
16
 3
12.806
13.352

-2
12.806
11.352
BUF
-1.454
PK BUF
St. Louis
Arizona
<<
10
34
20.806
9.694

-3
20.806
6.694
ARI
-14.112
ARI
-14
ARI
Dallas
Pittsburgh
<<
13
20
8.470
4.908
  8.470
4.908
PIT
-3.562
PIT
-3
PIT
New England<<
Seattle
24
21
8.951
18.028
-1
 
7.951
18.028
NWE
-10.077
SEA
+5
NWE
MON, DEC 8
Tampa Bay
Carolina
<<
23
38
5.237
5.822
  5.237
5.822
TAM
-0.585
CAR
-3
TAM

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 14
133-75 (63.92%) Straight Up / 109-99 (52.40%) ATS  (+157.50
see below)

Week 14 2008 Record:
10-6 Straight Up / 8-8 ATS (-80.00)

3 Year Running Record:
454
-256 (63.94%) Straight Up / 391-319 (55.07%) ATS

This year we started in week one which we never have before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.

We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week 2.

This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per game per week for the rest of the year.

That is just our system for averaging out the beginning slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the season and playoff time.

So this year we did the following:

Week 13 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1520 for a net of -80.00
Week 13 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 12 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1900 for a net of +300.00
Week 11 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1330 for a net of -270.00
Week 10 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 9 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1710 for a net of +310.00
Week 8 we bet a total of 1400 and won 2000 for a net of +600.00
Week 7 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1   we bet a total of  400 and won  380.00 for a net of -20.00

So for the year we are at +157.50 to date

How the predictor works:

Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.


Predictor History

Week 13 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 12 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 11 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 10 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 9 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 8 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 7 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 6 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 5 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 4 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 3 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 2 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 1 2008 NFL Predictor

Overall Final 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  
Total win based on 1 unit ($100.00): +2830.00

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)


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