10-30-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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This is a show me week in the NFL and there are some nice picks this week for the money line bettors. The dog line picks for this week include New England (+100) Minnesota (+115) Indianapolis (+115), and Green Bay (+120) who the predictor all has winning outright. Sounds like a very nice money line parlay to us. We plan on playing that and adding as a fifth team Kansas City (+150) as they are due, and Buffalo has been reeling. When we play these money line parlays we mix them up for coverage so it will be something like this:

NWE+MIN / IND+GNB / IND+NWE / GNB+MIN / NWE+MIN+IND / GNB+NWE+IND
GNB+MIN+IND / NWE+MIN+IND+GNB / NWE+MIN+IND+GNB+KAN

Gambling is about covering your pocketbook against that one unexpected loss. Win 50% of these games and you will have a very nice weekend if you cover yourself properly.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 11
111-65 (63.07%) Straight Up / 94-82 (53.41%) ATS  (+507.50 see below)

Week 11 2008 Record: Through Sunday Night
10-6 Straight Up / 10-6 ATS (+300)

I certainly hope you were listening when we picked our parlays this week, if so you are already up big with NWE MIN and IND winning, If GNB wins tomorrow night it will be a huge weekend. We don't bet a full unit on parlays though, or it would have been a lot better. We bet 25.00 on our parlays.

NWE+MIN +82.50
IND+GNB -25.00
IND+NWE +82.50
GNB+MIN -25.00
NWE+MIN+IND +206.00
GNB+NWE+IND -25.00
GNB+MIN+IND -25.00
NWE+MIN+IND+GNB -25.00
NWE+MIN+IND+GNB+KAN -25.00

Now if GNB had just played like they had any business in the NFL on Monday night we could have had a great weekend, instead we have to live with a +221.00 parlay play which is OK, that shows you the importance of covering your parlays.

Our weekend this weekend ended up +521 with parlay and regular unit plays.

We do not include our parlay picks in our yearly winning totals, we only give you an idea of a weekends play here. YTD we were running behind on our parlay picks by $200.00 this weekend changes that and our new running total on parlay picks for the year is +21.00.

3 Year Running Record:
432-246 (63.72%) Straight Up / 376-302 (55.46%) ATS

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 11
111-65 (63.07%) Straight Up / 94-82 (53.41%) ATS  (+507.50 see below)

Week 11 2008 Record: Through Sunday Night
10-6 Straight Up / 10-6 ATS (+300)

3 Year Running Record:
432-246 (63.72%) Straight Up / 376-302 (55.46%) ATS

This year we started in week one which we never have before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.

We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week 2.

This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per game per week for the rest of the year.

That is just our system for averaging out the beginning slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the season and playoff time.

So this year we did the following:

Week 11 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1900 for a net of +300.00
Week 11 we bet a total of 1600 and won 1520 for a net of -270.00
Week 10 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 9 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1710 for a net of +310.00
Week 8 we bet a total of 1400 and won 2000 for a net of +600.00
Week 7 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1   we bet a total of  400 and won  380.00 for a net of -20.00

So for the year we are at +397.50 to date

How the predictor works:

Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

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