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10-30-08

The NFL Predictor is our proprietary computer program that predicts game scores. Remember this site is for entertainment purposes only. So have some fun and compare your results with your friends.

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This week kicks off Thursday night football and the second half of the season. The predictor has a lot of games really close to the line this week. However the only money line game it shows is for the Packers (+125) to upset the Vikings.

How the predictor works:
Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. Home field advantage is figured at 3 points. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 10
89-55 (61.81%) Straight Up / 77-67 (53.47%) ATS  (+477.50
see below)

Week 10 2008 Record:
10-4 Straight Up / 7-7 ATS (-70.00)

3 Year Running Record:
410
-236 (63.47%) Straight Up / 359-287 (55.57%) ATS

NFL Week 10
THU, NOV 6 TIME POINTS ADJ NET PREDICTION SPREAD ATS PICK  
Denver<<
Cleveland
34
30
16.525
14.383

-1
16.525
13.383
CLE
-3.142
CLE
-3
CLE

Recap

SUN, NOV 9
New Orleans
Atlanta
<<
20
34
12.388
10.087

-1
12.388
 9.087
ATL
-3.301
ATL
-1
ATL Recap
Tennessee<<
Chicago
21
14
 3.384
 7.980

-1
3.384
6.980
TEN
-3.596
CHI
+3
TEN Recap
Jacksonville<<
Detroit
38
14
15.165
21.111

-1
15.165
20.111
JAC
-4.946
DET
+7.5
DET Recap
Seattle
Miami
<<
19
21
18.979
11.642

-1
18.979
10.642
MIA
-8.337
MIA
-7.5
MIA Recap
Green Bay
Minnesota
<<
27
28
10.055
11.747

-1
10.055
10.747
GNB
-0.692
MIN
-2.5
GNB Recap
Buffalo
New England
<<
10
20
11.041
10.844

-1
11.041
 9.844
NWE
-1.197
NWE
-3.5
BUF Recap
St. Louis
NY Jets
<<
 3
47
18.915
11.190

-1
18.915
10.190
NYJ
-8.725
NYJ
-9.5
STL Recap
Baltimore<<
Houston
41
13
 8.485
15.257

-1
 8.485
14.257
BAL
-5.772
HOU
+1
BAL Recap
Carolina<<
Oakland
17
 6
 6.593
20.061

-1
 6.593
19.061
CAR
-12.468
OAK
+9.5
CAR Recap
Indianapolis<<
Pittsburgh
24
20
11.982
 4.470

-1
11.982
3.470
PIT
-8.512
NL PIT Recap
Kansas City
San Diego
<<
19
20
19.996
13.493

-1
19.996
12.493
SDG
-7.503
SDG
-15.5
KAN Recap
NY Giants<<
Philadelphia
36
31
 3.416
 4.470

-2
3.416
2.470
PHI
-0.946
PHI
-3
NYG Recap
MON, NOV 10
San Francisco
Arizona
<<
24
29
18.825
 7.265

-1
18.825
 6.265
ARI
-12.560
ARI
-9
ARI Preview
·Bye: Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cincinnati

Overall 2008 Record: Through Week 10
89-55 (61.81%) Straight Up / 77-67 (53.47%) ATS  (+477.50
see below)

Week 10 2008 Record:
10-4 Straight Up / 7-7 ATS (-70.00)

3 Year Running Record:
410
-236 (63.47%) Straight Up / 359-287 (55.57%) ATS

This year we started in week one which we never have before and every year we hedge our bets at the beginning of the year because of the nature of the predictor. Remember we live in Nevada so it is legal for us to bet. If you live elsewhere this is just for giggles.

We usually have bet 50.00 the first week which was week 2.

This year we bet 25.00 per game in week one, 50.00 in week two and three, 75.00 in week 4 and 5 and now will be betting 100.00 per game per week for the rest of the year.

That is just our system for averaging out the beginning slow start of every year. We usually stay at 100.00 for most of the year and then depending on winnings either stay there or bet a little more at the end of the season and playoff time.

So this year we did the following:

Week 10 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 9 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1710 for a net of +310.00
Week 8 we bet a total of 1400 and won 2000 for a net of +600.00
Week 7 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 6 we bet a total of 1400 and won 1330 for a net of -70.00
Week 4-5 we bet a total of 2025 and won 2137.50 for a net of +112.50
Week 2-3 we bet a total of 1550 and won 1235.00 for a net of -315.00
Week 1   we bet a total of  400 and won  380.00 for a net of -20.00

So for the year we are at +547.50 to date

How the predictor works:

Power points are given from our computer based on over 50 criteria, with the lower number being strongest. Each point difference in a team reflects to a point on the scoreboard. The number in the prediction is how many points the computer thinks they will win by. Take that and figure it to the spread if it is the same or a bigger number than the spread we take the favorite if it is smaller than the spread you take the underdog if you are in a ATS contest.

If you have the option of not picking teams anytime the difference in the prediction and the spread is less than 1 point do not play the game.

Adjustment is based on home record formula overall over last 3 years along with any major injuries

Reading Results: Red games are losses.  If you bet based on the score differential given ATS at opening would be the ATS result

We count ATS ties as wins since you cant lose a tie.


Predictor History

Week 9 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 8 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 7 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 6 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 5 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 4 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 3 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 2 2008 NFL Predictor
Week 1 2008 NFL Predictor

Overall Final 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  
Total win based on 1 unit ($100.00): +2830.00

Overall 2007 Record:
172-79(68.53%) Straight Up / 147-104(58.57%) ATS  

2007 Regular Season Record: 167-73(69.58%) Straight Up /141-99(58.75%) ATS
2007 Playoff Record: 5-6 Straight Up   6-5 ATS

2007 Complete Season to Date betting results at 1 unit:  + $2830
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)

Overall 2006 Record:
149-102 straight up  135-116 ATS  9-2 over/under

2006 Regular Season:  142-98 Straight Up  /  131-109 ATS
2006 Playoff Record:  7-4   /  4-7 ATS   9-2 Over/Under

2006 Season betting results at 1 unit:  + $1500
(wins are figured at -110 so a won game pays 190.00)


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