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The Armchair QB

August 9, 2008

2008 College Football Season Preview

I look at my calendar, it says Tuesday, August 5, 2008. Just over three weeks away until I get to sit down and watch the 2008 season get underway. When I last left, LSU won the Bowl Championship Series crown, thumping Ohio State by fourteen points. Since then, the Tigers lost Ryan Perrilloux because he can’t behave himself, Michigan have a new coach in Rich Rodriguez, the usual amount of players getting arrested for fighting in a bar, carrying a gun, or smoking weed. In short, your typical college football offseason that reminds me of those trashy television daytime talk shows. 

As the saying goes, “Hope springs eternal”. It is a new year, new beginnings. Every team has a goal in mind. This preview will give you a glimpse of what I think will happen in 2008. The information I used is courtesy of the Sporting News College Football 2008 preview, USA Today College Football preview and Athlon Sports College Football preview.

Southeastern Conference

I will begin in the SEC West Division, where I think it will be a three team race. The defending BCS champion Louisiana State Tigers go into the season without a proven QB, no Glenn Dorsey or LB Alonzo Highsmith. Head Coach Les Miles has plenty of work to get the offense in gear. His offense will have the foundation as four out of 5 starters return. The Tigers do not have the luxury of an easy first game. It is at home vs. Appalachian State, the same school that beat Michigan. In college football, I have found that if you have a steady offensive line, plus senior leadership, teams will go far. Alabama should be in the mix if QB John Parker Wilson can find Alabama receivers instead of the opposing team defenders and their young but talented team gels quickly. Defensively, the Tide should be fine led by linebacker Rolando McClain. I think the team that will win the SEC west is Auburn. All of their starting linebackers return, their entire offensive line returns so that will help with the passing game and most importantly, their spring drills were done quite well. It is projected that Kodi Burns (who played in the Peach Bowl win over Clemson) should provide the necessary leadership for Auburn. My prediction is that Auburn wins the SEC West.

In the SEC East, there is much adoration for Tim Tebow of Florida. Tebow is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Tebow can throw and run those quarterback sneaks for scores. The reality is for the Gators is that; they need someone else to run the ball. Florida is hoping Emmanuel Moody can do the job. Tennessee should be right there if projected starting quarterback Jonathan Crompton can hand the ball off to Arian Foster with success. Look for Tennessee to run the ball early and often to set up the pass. The team I like to win the SEC east is Georgia. Ever since Georgia did the infamous team touchdown celebration dance against Florida last year, the Bulldogs are on a roll. What is to like on this team. Senior QB Matthew Stafford should break out this season, Knowshon Moreno and the Bulldog offensive line should run to daylight early and often. I feel the only thing stopping Georgia is if Georgia starts listening to the media. Recently, the USA Today coaches’ poll was released. Georgia is ranked as number one.

Conclusion: The Southeastern conference may be the best conference, but not the most dominant conference. Many of the teams have holes to fill. I like Auburn and Georgia to meet in the SEC championship game with Georgia winning.

Big East Conference

The way some people treat the Big East Conference is like how I detest Brussels sprouts, YUCK!! In recent years, the Big East Conference has represented themselves well in BCS game. The school that has done that is West Virginia. New boss Bill Stewart has a full cupboard. He has all five offensive line starters coming back, Noel Devine will replace Steve Slaton as the running back, Pat White will continue to run and pass his way to another championship for the Mountaineers. While there is no guarantees (see Pittsburgh 13-9 win over West Virginia last season). You should pay attention to the following Big East teams:

South Florida—at one point last year, the Bulls were ranked number two in the BCS standing. All five offensive line starters return, plus QB Matt Grothe. In order for the Bulls to win the Big East, they need to prevent teams from scoring. The Bulls defense gave up 56 to Oregon in the Brut Sun Bowl last year. You need to play defense in order to win games.

Armchair QB  Pre-Season Top 25 Poll

August 5, 2008

  1. LSU
  2. Georgia
  3. Southern California
  4. Oklahoma
  5. West Virginia
  6. Ohio State
  7. Missouri
  8. Auburn
  9. Clemson
  10. Florida
  11. Kansas
  12. Texas
  13. Wisconsin
  14. Arizona State
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Texas Tech
  17. Illinois
  18. Oregon
  19. South Florida
  20. BYU
  21. Wake Forest
  22. Alabama
  23. Tennessee
  24. Penn State
  25. Fresno State

Connecticut—when you think of UConn, you probably think of the basketball team. With all four starters back at linebacker; the strength of the team is defense led by Scott Luturs.

Conclusion: Do not count out Louisville and Cincinnati however: West Virginia is too talented, too fast, and too strong for this conference. West Virginia should not have trouble winning the Big East.

Big Ten Conference

I will start by saying that Penn State, Purdue, Michigan State is a step too slow to seriously contend for the conference championship. All three teams should have nice seasons and nice bowl trips. Michigan has a new head coach in Rich Rodriguez and a new offensive system, the zone-read option system. It is unclear if this system will fit with the current roster of Michigan and the fans that are accustomed to the traditional run-first offense.

Illinois had a nice year last year. The Illini went to the Rose Bowl game courtesy of the benevelonence of the BCS system. A 49-17 whitewashing given by Southern California proved that Illinois is not there yet. As long as Juice Williams continues to improve his passing game, Illinois should be in the mix. Wisconsin is my second place finisher. RB PJ Hill may have to carry the load early until the Badgers can get reliable play at the quarterback position.

The team I pick to win is Ohio State. Here are a few names you will hear often this season. Running Back Chris “Beanie” Well, linebacker James Laurinitius, quarterback Todd Beckman and a good defense. What I see with Ohio State is, are the Buckeyes improved over last years BCS annilation given by LSU? Have they improved their team speed?

Conclusion: Wisconsin and Illinois will nudge Ohio State a bit before Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship.

Pacific Ten Conference Preview

In my opinion, the real race in the pacific ten is for second through fifth place. I will crown Southern California as the winner by default. The Trojans are fast, loaded and hungry to get to the BCS national championship game. Dennis Erickson is known for turning teams around. He has done that at Arizona State. Led by projected quarterback Rudy Carpenter, the Sun Devils are loaded offensively. Typically, teams that are loaded offensively are suspect defensively. Arizona State has to replace their entire defensive backfield. In the offensive minded Pacific Ten, teams need to play some defense. Can Oregon play defense? By Pacific Ten standards, I would say yes. The Ducks defense has to since their QB situation is murky, and their running game isn’t decided. Rick Neuheisal is the new boss at UCLA. He takes over a program that has the talent, but the Bruins have underachieved in recent seasons. With opening game vs. Tennessee and BYU, success early on is important. California is a team I cannot figure out. At one point last season, the talk was about the Golden Bears and the BCS; they ended up in the Armed Forces Bowl, squeaking out a 42-36 win over Air Force. Nate Longshore must step up and be the senior QB, team chemistry is important.

Conclusion: USC wins the Pacific 10 title. The race for second will be close.

Big Twelve Conference

I think Big twelve fans have a legitimate argument for being “the best college football conference” in America. In the Big 12 North, I think this is a two team race. Kansas was the “feel warm and fuzzy” story of last year. The Jayhawks were 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl game. Todd Reesing and company do not have the luxury to sneak up on anyone this year. The same applies to Missouri. Sophomore wideout Jeremy Macklin and Chase Daniel should keep statisticians busy. I know games are won on the field; however on paper, I give the nod to Missouri to win the North division.

In the South division, aside from Texas and Oklahoma is Texas Tech. I know that the Red Raiders pass the ball around and score points as if it was NCAA 09 video game. The question is can they beat Oklahoma and Texas? Unless the defense can stop somebody, Oklahoma will win this division because they will beat Texas in the annual Red River game.

Conclusion: A repeat of last year’s big twelve title game. Maybe Missouri will give Oklahoma a better game. The Big twelve title game is outside in Kansas City this year. Same old story, the Sooners win the big twelve.

Mountain West Conference

Utah and Air Force should provide stiff competition for my projected winner, Brigham Young University. The Utes season depends on their first game at Michigan. I think a win there will boost the confidence. Air Force, with the triple option is a plucky team that will give it their all every game. BYU has a team led by Max Hall and 8 starters back on offense. The key for BYU is how the defense will respond with only three starters return. Some say that the Cougars are talented enough to go undefeated and crash the BCS party. Not if they can find replacements.

Conclusion: BYU in a competitive Mountain West Conference.

“The Best of the Rest”

With all due respect to these conference and space, I will provide just the winners of each conference then discuss my method of operation for this year’s preseason top 25 poll.

In the Western Athletic Conference, Fresno State should edge out Boise State and Nevada. The Bulldogs, famous for their “Anybody, Anywhere, Anytime” motto when it comes to scheduling, play Rutgers, UCLA and Wisconsin. I see them beating UCLA and Rutgers. Three out of five offensive line starters return. For Fresno State to do well, the defense must find ways to keep opponents off the score sheet.

In the Mid-American Conference, Central Michigan vs. Miami, OH in the conference title game. The Chippewa’s have a nice quarterback in Dan LeFavour. The Redhawks are equipped nicely on the defensive side of the ball led by linebacker Clayton Mullins, Caleb Bostic and Joey Hudson. Ball State may play a role.

Conclusion: Miami, OH wins this conference.

The Atlantic Coast Conference is suffering when it comes to football. Their BCS representative cannot win a bowl game, Florida State and Miami are in my mind, mediocre teams that hang on to the past and Duke is just atrocious. Clemson and Virginia Tech should win the Atlantic and Coastal Division respectively. I like Clemson to win due to the running back duo of CJ Spiller and James Davis. I argue that the ACC, not Big East is the weakest of the BCS conferences as of right now.

Lastly, my preseason top 25 poll is out. This poll is an educated guess of how I see the team ranked. I always start with the defending champions being number one. That means LSU is atop the polls. It is clear to me, that early season polling is influenced by teams posting enormous margin of victory against lesser competition. I decided that I will not release a second poll until late September. I want to get an accurate poll of the best twenty-five teams in college football.

 

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