The 2009 NBA draft was the third
draft under the league's "one
and done" rule, which requires
an American player to wait a
year following his class's
graduation from high school
before entering the NBA draft.
The 2006 draft, the year Andrea
Bargnani was drafted first
overall, was the leap year
between high school players
entering the draft and the first
class of "one and done players."
For the NBA it is a business
decision that protects its teams
from drafting unproven high
school players with lots of
hype. The NCAA benefits by
opening its doors to the best of
the best even if it is only for
a year.
The rule is ineffective, and NBA
General Managers do not make
good use of the extra one year
of evaluation. Did Greg Oden's
one year at Ohio State prove
something that his high school
career didn't? Either way he was
drafted number one, and has had
a less than stellar start to his
career. The "one and done" year
in college has not altered draft
stocks at all. Yes, a few
players dropped in mock drafts,
while others raised, but no
player went from being a lottery
player his senior year of high
school to a "bust" following his
freshman year in college. Thus,
the one additional year of
evaluation that the rule creates
is useless.
The 2007 draft is a great
example. The RSCI is a composite
ranking of all the major
scouting sites. It had the high
school graduating class of 2006
as follows,
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Brandan Wright
4. Spencer Hawes
5. Ty Lawson
The 2007 draft? Oden and
Durant were drafted one and two.
Wright was picked eight. Hawes
tenth, and Lawson stuck around
school until leaving following
his NCAA title this past year.
If anything the "one and done"
rule hurt NBA teams that year.
Mike Conley road the wave of
Greg Oden and Daequan Cook to
the NCAA title game. He was
drafted fourth. He's a bust, and
if the Grizzlies hadn't dissed
Spain with their handling of Pau
Gasol, Ricky Rubio would be
taking Conley's locker next
year. The RSCI rankings had
Conley at 27 following high
school. The "one and done" year
just filled Conley's draft stock
with air.
The draft class of 2008 shows
the same correlation. After
graduating high school the RSCI
rankings were as follows,
1. O.J. Mayo
2. Kevin Love
3. Eric Gordon
4. Michael Beasley
5. Derrick Rose
The draft had Rose at one,
Beasley two, Mayo three, Love
five, and Gordon seven. What on
earth did NBA scouts learn from
the 2007 class's year in college
other than Derrick Rose likes
candy? College is a level up
from high school basketball, and
can be a check if a player is
simply succeeding based on
physical attributes. Kevin Love
is an example of this. He is not
a awe inspiring athlete, but his
year in college helped to
confirm his ability was
authentic, not just a product of
his massive size versus high
school sophmores.
As much as Love's year in
college validated his ability,
the 2009 draft class's one year
in college was a giant red flag
in reference to the players
individual talents. The RSCI for
the high school class of 2008
was
1. Brandon Jennings
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Tyreke Evans
4. Samardo Samuels
5. DeMar DeRozan
Evans was drafted fourth,
Jennings tenth, Holiday
seventeenth, and DeRozan ninth.
Samuels stayed in school. His
draft stock dropped, but was
never very high as his build
does not translate well to a
faster NBA game. The interesting
part of the 2009 draft is that
Holiday, and DeRozan had
horrible freshman years. DeRozan
averaged 13.9 ppg, and Holiday
8.5 ppg. If scouts are not going
to pay attention to the player's
one year in college then why
make them go. Hell, Jennings
played in Europe. No one even
watched him play. He was drafted
off his high school stock.
Holiday, and DeRozan were too.
