NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips
Emotion--
The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't
statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the
team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a
high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is
even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.
Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready
for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as Bobby
Bowden, Sonny Lubick, Phillip Fulmer, Jackie Sherrill, Dennis Erickson,
and Lou Holtz among others have all shown their worth in this area over
the years.
Sandwich Games--
Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in
between two other more important games. The NFL has split into
different Divisions, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we
have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of
four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So
now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past
with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the
Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing
team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this
week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused
on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is
against say Arizona, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful!
Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and
have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled
early against Arizona, and those hurting from the previous game might
not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich'
game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to
cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week
against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the
sandwich game!
Line
Movement--
Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means
everything. When i wager (my favorite recreation), i want the line to
be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but
slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point,
especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote
injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be
careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading
disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in
between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers',
those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. i
know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been
successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of
winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet.
They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games
nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in
the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line
movement during the week won every single game those years. Every
week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can
easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of
betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the
Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line
movement in one direction.
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
410-536-5878
