FemmeFan Weekly

June 6, 2008

Belmont Bellowing

By: Devon Ellington

My deadline for this piece is over a week before Belmont day; with the way things change day-to-day, especially with The Triple Crown on the line, I have no doubt that some of the horses mentioned will be withdrawn, and some horses I don’t mention will be entered.

I am worried about Big Brown.  The horse is recovering from an injury, and he’s known to be a slow healer.  I think he’d be run on Belmont day no matter what – there’s a Triple Crown at stake and the rumor is that his owners plan to retire him after the race anyway (not even holding out the possibility of running him in the Breeders’ Cup).  I want to see a Triple Crown champion as much as the next person, but I also don’t want Big Brown fatally injured.  Not being around the horse every day, I simply can’t make the determination on what’s really going on.  We have to trust this horse’s “people” – all of whom have a lot on the line, both personally and professionally.

I’ve been a wait-and-see with this horse all along, as much as I like him.  I’m almost afraid to hope for a Triple Crown winner.  I want one; but the biggest lesson I’ve learned in nine years of covering thoroughbred racing and many more before that as a spectator is there’s no such thing as a sure thing.  I think this is an exceptionally talented horse, and a smart one.  His learning curve from race to race has been exciting to behold.  But he’s injured, and how will he factor that in to what he does? 

Unfortunately, we won’t find out until race day.

The buzz is that it’s a given that Big Brown will win, and that his only real competition is Casino Drive.  I think fans are craving a match race, but, again, I’m not convinced it will play out.

Yes, I’ll play Big Brown across the board.  I’ll play Casino Drive across the board.  I’ll probably box an exacta and toss around some other exotics with them.  But I think there are other horses that can’t be discounted.

I like Casino Drive because he’s strong and consistent.  His dam is Better Than Honor, the mother of last year’s Belmont winner, the filly Rags to Riches, and the previous Belmont winner, Jazil.  Better Than Honor has Deputy Minister as her sire.  Casino Drive’s grandsire on the other side of his pedigree is AP Indy.  He’s got the pedigree for the stamina and determination.

But there are more horses in the race.

Anak Nakal is sired by Victory Gallop, which is nothing to sneeze at, but I’ll probably pass.  Do not discount Behindatthebar if he runs – I had high hopes for him in the Preakness and he ended up not running.  In addition to simply liking what he’s done on the track this year, he’s also got Forest Wildcat and Runaway Groom in his pedigree.  If he runs, I’ll bet him for place and show spots, and probably put him in a trifecta with BB and CD.

I’m curious to see if the Unbridled backlash will affect the betting on Denis of Cork.  Ever since Eight Belle’s tragic demise after the Derby, there’s been a lot of yapping about unsoundness in the Unbridled progeny and how they won’t stop running, even when injured.  I think it’s more case-by-case and adding in trainer/owner/environmental factors that simply having Unbridled in the pedigree.  However, this horse (Denis of Cork) has never particularly impressed me; I’ve passed on him all the way down the line, and I’ll continue to do so here.  But NOT because Unbridled is in the pedigree.

I was incredibly proud of the determined little Icabad Crane, working hard, almost unnoticed, to nip the show spot as I’d hoped in the Preakness.  I’ll put a show bet on him again, but I think he could finish anywhere from third to fifth in this field.

I passed on Macho Again in the Preakness.  He did better than I expected, taking the place spot.  I’m passing on him again here.   

An intriguing possible entry is Spark Candle.  AP Indy is the sire; Serena’s Song (a horse I adored) is the dam.  I’ll take a close look at him in the paddock, and probably at least throw some show money on him.  If it rains, I may push him into the place spot.

Tale of Ekati is a horse I really like, and one of my longshot picks for a show spot in the Derby.  I like the horse because he tries to hard and has a terrific don’t-quit attitude.  I think he’ll do better this summer in Saratoga than in this spot.  I’ll probably toss some show money towards him because I want to support the horse, not necessarily because I think he can hit a spot in the top three.

Tomcito is interesting.  He’s sired by Street Cry, and I like him.  However, I don’t think he can outmaneuver BB or CD  or Behindatthebar (unless they get bad trips) for a mile and a half. Remember, this is the longest race most of these horses will ever run in their lives, unless they ship overseas.  I’ll see how he looks in the paddock, but I’ll probably pass.

I would say Behindatthebar and Spark Candle are the most likely to be the upset horses, with maybe, maybe Tomcito stealing everyone’s thunder.  I’ll risk egg on my face if I’ve dismissed Macho Again unfairly.  Or, the upset horse could be entered on June 4, and I haven’t seen him yet.    Edgar Prado would love to upset Triple Crown hopes, as he did in 2004 with Birdstone (36-1) and in 2002 with Sarava (at 70-1, I paid my rent and all of June’s bills with that one).  Last I heard, Prado was Casino Drive’s pilot, which gives that horse even more ammunition.

The deck may reshuffle before the race, depending on who else comes in and if any of the above drop out.  In fact, as I was about to submit this article, word came that Ready’s Echo and Da’Tara are likely to be entered.  Da’Tara placed second in the Barbara Stakes on the day before Preakness days and has been working sharply in Saratoga.  There’s no doubt he’s a fast horse, but remember:  endurance is the key to the Belmont Stakes.  This race is a mile and a half.    Ready’s Echo placed third in the Peter Pan Stakes, which is a much less challenging race than this one.  Both horses would have to make huge improvements, and there’d have to be bad trips from Big Brown, Casino Drive, and Behindatthebar and/or bad weather for them to become upset horses, in my opinion.  There will be a special edition of “Racing Ink” on Ink in My Coffee (http://devonellington.wordpress.com) on Friday, June 6 handicapping the entire race card, and then the Belmont wrap-up here on FEMMEFAN the following week.

My biggest hope is that Big Brown sweeps the Triple Crown on Belmont Day.  My biggest hope is that all the jockeys and riders get through the day uninjured.

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